If there's something that always resonates with critics, that's it the mythical "supercycle" for iPhone sales. At this point they are referring to a variable accumulation that could affect large terminal sales in a very short period of time. The fact is that the word goes back to the present time from time to time, without getting physical later.
In recent weeks, rumors surfaced on the iPhone 12 supercycle earlier this year. Let's take a look background and what credibility we can give analysts.
IPhone 6 with "supercycle" background
When there is a sales cycle, it’s triggered an overabundance of user-oriented content at the new center. The only life-giving supercycle for the iPhone was the duo of iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. In 2014 there are a few things that are very different:
- Transparent interest in large screens, taking full advantage of Samsung. Users wanted a more than four-inch iPhone 5s for the iPhone 5s.
- The China Installation in December 2013 on the iPhone distributor list. Until then, the iPhone was not officially sold in the country. It opened a huge bone of potential customers with China Mobile.
- A collection of users is waiting to update the end of their list two-year telephone contracts. These cycles are combined with the iPhone that has released a new design, which has been happening even for years.
Each of these things separately would boost sales. But it's a plus they work in the form of a great storm, resulting in the following graph:
Note: Apple's financial year begins in October and ends in September. Q1 covers the months of October to December.
As can be seen, between Q1 and Q4 of 2015, it happened an increase in iPhone sales between 36% and 58.8%. In addition, for the first three quarters it is over 50%. Receiving sales growth of this level, especially with a product that increases prices, is out of the ordinary.
From here comes the word supercycle. If we see the next quarter of 2016, we will see a significant decline in growth. Th is is because comparisons with the previous year It is particularly difficult
The iPhone super cycle is 2020-2021
While just weeks have had a bizarre attack on Apple's ecosystem, both in production and demand due to its exposure to China, we believe it will end soon due to the 5G supercycle and service upgrades remain key to our vision of Apple in the next 12 to 18 months.
This is what Wetbush analyst Dan Ives, collected by Barron (via 9to5Mac) talked about. Ives's main argument, over 5G, is that the demand is not destroyed by the coronavirus. Delays in time. In other words, those who were going to buy an iPhone now and didn't, didn't change their mind (or not go to the race) and chose to wait.
2020 is no different from 2014. A lot of things have changed since then and no longer is China Mobile worth playing again
This will make the demand for the next two quarters higher than normal. IPhone sales peaks coming together when the new generation is introduced in September. All other locations they collapse continuouslye until you return to the end of Q4 (including the first weeks of sale) and Q1.
As for 5G, many analysts think that this year we will see an iPhone with this technology. However, i hype circulating its images through the media does not seem to be moving to the end user. The transition from 4G to 5G doesn't seem as critical as it was from 3G to 4G.
For these reasons you will need to add an additional one, which is the absence of another China sales spree. That will never happen, because there is no other operator for this cigar. Without forgetting the device itself, we don't know what movies will bring or if it will be an additional incentive to do more refreshments.
What is certain is that the situation in 2014 is very different to 2020. You can only wait and see what happens.